Some
call it sleek and sleazy; some brand it betraying and rebellious; and
others believe it is treacherous and sheer political household
wickedness; but whatever anyone calls it at this point doesn’t really
matter. In a Senate and House of Representatives where the governing
party has a numerical edge, Bukola Saraki, who is a member of the ruling
party is the Senate President; and Ike Ekweremadu of the undying
opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party, is his deputy.
That
must be old news by now. As a close watcher of how the ping-pong of
politics is played in the unfurling Muhammadu Buhari era, the manner
with which the Kwara State senator emerged the commander of the Senate
on Tuesday is pure right-on-the-money political trigonometry in a
country where seven is always more than 19.
The
APC chieftains including our greenhorn civilian President reportedly
invited wrangling legislators to a roundtable talk to sift through the
leadership imbroglio and settle for a team that would help lead the new
administration’s efforts in the National Assembly. But before anyone
could get their bearings, Saraki reportedly sold a dummy to his fellow
senators. In a typical politician mannerism and mesmerism, Saraki
sneaked out from the backdoor to smooch up with his ex-fellow PDP
legislators for whom obviously there is still a lot of love. In the
bargaining game with the PDP senators, Saraki auctioned the Deputy
Senate Presidency to one of his political lovebirds in the PDP to the
chagrin, rage and fury of the APC, a party just hopping out of the
opposition altitude and learning how to operate on a ruling frequency as
a governing party.
There is a smoking anger now in the APC
House and among many of its supporters all across the world. “How dare
Bukola Saraki do that to his party”? People are asking. I am not joining
them in the question session; I know the heart of politicians just like
Jesus Christ knows the heart of men. While the APC is rollicking in a
festive mood and beating its chest that its Broom Revolution had swept
off the PDP, the same broom has swept back some remnants of the PDP
principalities into reckoning and eminence; thanks or no thanks to the
Kwara senator.
Whether President Buhari likes it or not, the
total package of his change agenda is now in a head-to-head
confrontation with a gathering ferocious wind from crafty and
experienced opposition PDP. Does Buhari really know the negative effect
of not having loyalists as leaders in the parliament? No; he doesn’t;
but soon will find out. Some political craftsmen in the President’s
party had reportedly counselled him to take a stand as to who should
become leaders of the two legislative bodies. I heard that the President
was told that his agenda for change would suffer a discouraging setback
if men who didn’t share his vision were allowed to be at the
command-and-control centre of the legislature. Mr. President did not
agree. “I am prepared to work with any leader that the House or Senate
selects. It doesn’t matter who the person is or where he or she is from…
I will not interfere in that process.”
The President may
believe that he can work with everybody. For once, Nigerians want him to
do just that in the interest of all of us. But can everybody work
with him? Among the “everybody” the President is naively embracing are
those who may sink his dreams. How many legislators will agree with the
President that their remuneration and juicy perks be slashed in half to
save money for Nigeria? How many of them will agree with him that all
the nominees he will soon be sending to the National Assembly are
perfect fits for his vision? How many of them will not put their
interests front-and-centre pushing to have their own candidates sneaked
on to the list of ministers? Mr. President has not walked this path
before; he has always been a soldier and farmer. The world of politics
is a different ball-game. The easiest part of politics is mounting the
podium and telling the world what your visions and missions are. The fun
part of politics is to dance to some Fuji music in Ibadan and have men,
women and children chant “Sai Buhari” one million times to your
delight. That fun part accounts for only 10 per cent of what politics is
all about. Ninety per cent of the dirty game is what you do behind
closed doors where you position those who will let you keep your
position, and then run your agenda through the house without much
opposition. But our own civilian rookie President believes even his
adversaries have changed their minds about him, and that they love him
without a condition because they love Nigeria. Mr. President, you are
holding the tiger by the tail. He who holds the tiger by the tail will
end up in the belly of the beast.
Buhari had said during the
inauguration that he belongs to nobody; and that may be true. But now,
we know that he will be forced to belong to somebody. He will belong to
Saraki, David Mark, Ekweremadu and salivating PDP legislators in the
Senate and the House of Representatives who want to have him for lunch.
By the time real politicking commences, Mr. President will know that he
has dug a big hole for himself and strange men will drive his agenda.
The signal from Saraki to the PDP legislators was a PDP family language
which Buhari could not decode. Only those christened and weaned on the
altar of the PDP politics understand the linguistic. What may now happen
is exactly what happened to George H.W. Bush (1989-1993) as President
of the United States of America.
In the 1988 US presidential
election, Vice-President George H. W. Bush running for president made a
lofty promise not to raise taxes. “Read my lips, no new taxes”, he
vowed. When he was sworn in, he had to deal with the opposition
Democrats who were in control of the Congress. The federal budget debt
stood at $2.8 trillion, and there were no revenues for any new domestic
ventures. Bush found himself in the difficult position of trying to
balance the budget and reduce the deficit without imposing additional
taxes on the American people.
The Democrats were waiting. Bush
had no choice but to compromise with the Congress. In June 1990, Bush
reneged on his “no taxes” pledge made during the campaign, noting that
tax increases might be necessary to solve the deficit problem. Many
conservative Republicans felt betrayed when Bush agreed to raise taxes.
Running against a smooth, savvy, young and good-looking Bill Clinton in
the 1992 election, Bush, with an approval rating of almost 90 per cent
after the Iraqi War, lost disgracefully to Clinton. His opposition
controlled the agenda in the Congress. When adversaries overtly or
covertly control the legislature, they control the president.
Saraki
is an APC member, so also are Dogora and Lasun Yusuf from my home state
of Osun in the House of Representatives. But the APC including
President Buhari felt more comfortable with the candidacies of others
and they know why. Are Buhari’s adversaries controlling the National
Assembly today? It looks like it; and it looks like this President may
have dug a hole for himself. How can Buhari and his deputy, Yemi
Osinbajo, deliver on their 100 days promises? It has become more
difficult now. And if they don’t, Buhari may end up being a one-term
President. If he is not impeached, he will be impeded. He is holding the
tiger by the tail; and he and his party may end up in the belly of the
beast on or before 2019!
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