In
the 45 years since the Nigerian civil war ended in January 1970,
Nigeria has often seemed on the verge of making significant political
advances. While its population soared, however, the country stumbled
through one contentious electoral exercise after another, interspersed
with military rule. The recent 2015 elections, which elevated Muhammadu
Buhari to the powerful presidency, have produced a significant shift in
control of national and state governments from the Peoples Democratic
Party to the All Progressives Congress. The PDP had been the dominant
party for 16 straight years.
While power will be transferred
on May 29, the PDP has not been decimated. It controls a reduced but
significant number of executive and legislative offices while each party
has pried senatorial seats from the other’s strongholds. The PDP faces
the challenge, however, of reconstituting itself as a viable opposition
party and allowing a new generation of leaders to emerge. Both parties
are weak in ideology thereby carpet-crossing is relatively easy.
Nigerian party politics, however, must now be elevated above
opportunism, mass bribery, and ethno-regional bartering.
The
APC won control of roughly 60 per cent of the Senate and House of
Representatives seats and a substantial majority of the state
governorships and assemblies. It is therefore well-placed to design and
implement new policies and practices. The APC also brings together, for
the first time in a formal coalition, political leaders of the core
Hausa-Fulani northern states and almost all of the predominantly Yoruba
South-West. The overriding question, however, is: Will Nigeria now
experience greater domestic peace and inclusive development? In
addition, will the achievement gap between competitive clientelism and
the developmentalism of authoritarian states like Ethiopia and Rwanda be
bridged? No firm answer to this question has been given in Africa
except in small or island states like Cape Verde and Mauritius, or
well-endowed but low-population countries like Namibia.
A
northern Muslim leader like Buhari, determined to reverse the political
and economic slippage of his region, and allied with South-West leaders
who have achieved the greatest socio-economic advances in the post-1999
civilian era, presents Nigeria with the opportunity to shift the axis of
governance towards peace and development. Buhari brings to the
Presidency wide support throughout the north, including the North-East
states wracked by Boko Haram violence.
Moreover, there is now a
trough of inter-religious conflict and fear in the North-East
reminiscent of the perennial clashes along the Muslim-Christian
fault-line of Plateau State and environs. In the March 28 vote, the APC
prevailed in four of seven Middle Belt states, all of which had been
taken by President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP in 2011. Overshadowed
in recent years by Boko Haram atrocities, the core Middle Belt states
urgently require peaceful accommodation among groups divided by
religion, ethnicity, and herding or agricultural pursuits.
It
was feared that if Jonathan lost the Presidency, the insurgency in the
Niger Delta area would be rekindled. While that prospect is not
precluded, Jonathan’s graceful concession doused a potential spark. In
the March 28 federal and April 11 local balloting, oil-producing Rivers
State was the site of the most violent conflicts and electoral abuses.
In this regard, South-East Nigeria might replicate the thuggish
conflicts of the Yoruba South-East that precipitated the 1967-70 civil
war. The defection of leading politicians to the opposition can trigger
fierce battles for the control of state and local governments and the
enormous spoils of oil revenue allocation. For example, when Rotimi
Amaechi, outgoing governor of Rivers State, crossed over to the APC, it
created a major breach between his supporters and the Jonathan-led
contingent dominant throughout the Niger Delta and South-East.
As
Nigerians ponder how they can emerge from the abyss of political
conflict, corruption, and discordant development, their leaders should
reflect on a pertinent comment by journalist Thomas Friedman concerning
the Middle East: “Past is prologue, and the past has carved so much scar
tissue into that landscape that it is hard to see anything healthy or
beautiful growing out of it anytime soon.” Will the Nigerian 2015
elections, despite the initial positive outcomes, devolve into another
prologue to the past? Or, is the country on the verge of a significantly
new political era? The destiny of 170 million Nigerians rests
precariously on the answer.
- Richard Joseph is John Evans Professor of International History and Politics, Northwestern University
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