Recent
developments in Africa’s most populous country have become very
worrisome. With a very youthful population, widespread poverty and
increasing spate of bombings and terrorism, the future of Nigeria hangs
ominously in the air like the Sword of Damocles.
Corruption
is growing in leaps and bounds as politicians revel in flashy display
of privatised public resources. The citizens are angry that there is
little trickledown effect on the population.
Many
options are possible but very few of them portend anything good. In the
Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, people are continuously in a pensive
mood as no one knows when the next bomb will go off and where. There is
palpable uncertainty in the air and on the faces of residents.
The
usually bustling night life is almost completely dead except for a few
bars now located in well-fortified compounds where customers have to be
frisked by security operatives before being admitted.
With
the 2015 elections beckoning, decaying infrastructure and the kidnapped
schoolgirls from Chibok still in captivity, President Goodluck Jonathan
is fast losing control of the situation. Many observers are getting
concerned that the consequences of further turbulence could be dreadful
to contemplate both for the country and the whole of West African
sub-region. The manifestations are multidimensional.
Jonathan’s
Peoples Democratic Party is currently embroiled in a multi-level
intra-party crisis. When the current National Chairman and a former
governor of Bauchi State, Adamu Mu’azu, emerged, many people believed
that he would make the right changes that would put the party in the
right footing by employing a more inclusive leadership style. Some party
stalwarts optimistically referred to him as the “game changer”.
Pursuant to this, he publicly promised not to interfere with the running
of the party at the state level and in return got the support of the
governors. After a few weeks, a defection wind started blowing in the
Senate and the PDP was at the verge of losing many of her members to the
rival All Progressives Congress.
The
PDP leadership led by Mu’azu allegedly struck another deal with the
senators, promising them automatic tickets of return on their party
platform. The fact that many PDP governors are interested in contesting
Senate seats means that the party can only keep a set of promise and not
the other. The clash of these two sets of promises contributed partly
to the current disaffection within the party. It is currently
manifesting in many states and the outcome is difficult to predict.
In
Enugu State, it is between Governor Sullivan Chime and Senator Ike
Ekweremmadu. In Benue State, it is Governor Gabriel Suswam and Senator
Barnabas Gemade. Delta State is boiling for Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan
and Senator James Manager. In Cross River, it is Governor Liyel Imoke
and Senator Victor Ndoma-Egba. In Abia State, it is Governor T.A. Orji
and Senator Nkechi Nwaorgu. The list is endless.
However, a
former National Chairman, Bamanga Tukur, is back in court challenging
his removal and his possible reinstatement will probably put everything
on a reverse gear.
The scariest part of this saga is the current
annexation of parts of Nigerian territory by the Boko Haram insurgents
in the North-East. Many local governments in Adamawa, Yobe and Borno
states are under the “Islamic Caliphate” controlled by the insurgents.
In the last few months, the Nigerian Army has been suffering defeats or
beaten to continuous retreats, or involved in “tactical manoeuvres” that
landed some troops among them twice in Cameroon while the insurgents
pressed harder and hoisted their flags in many more communities. Instead
of the army, local hunters and vigilante groups are now the ones who
have been able to confront the insurgents and occasionally subdue them.
The army that was once a story of professionalism and fame in Sierra
Leone, Liberia and other West African countries is now a subject of
scorn and ridicule. One of the prevailing narratives is that these
soldiers are not well-paid/motivated and that the President and the
military high command should be held responsible for that. A disgruntled
and ineffective military in the face of escalating conflict is a bad
sign for any nation. Experts fear that it may not take too long a time
for Nigeria to reach the tipping point that is capable of terminating
the democratic experiment.
Furthermore, the frosty relationship
between the President and the National Assembly has contributed to
portray him as someone who is not in charge. Granted, the parliament is
supposed to be an independent arm of government but as a leader of the
party that commands a majority, he is expected to push through his
policies in the legislative arm of government fairly quickly. In his
case, President Jonathan has not. Instead, he has employed some
desperate methods which have deepened the crisis rather than
ameliorating it. His inability to get the state of emergency extension
passed easily in the parliament shows that his support has eroded
greatly. Some people feel that many senators are angry with the
President for filibustering with many of his promises to them especially
on the automatic return ticket.
For
the House of Representatives, the poor handling of the aftermath of the
defection of the Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, pitted him against many of
the members. For instance, the immediate withdrawal of the security
aides of the Speaker drew a lot of criticisms from the public. The
blocking of the entrance of the National Assembly complex which was
aimed at preventing members from holding a session, was not only
unnecessary but outright irresponsible. For a politician that is
expected to face election in the next few weeks in the midst of swelling
opposition, one will expect President Jonathan to concentrate on
delivering such projects and programmes that will endear him further to
the people.
How far can the National Assembly go on the
impeachment move that some members are currently pursuing? Will the
President consider resigning on his own and support someone else for the
2015 election? Will he insist on going ahead to contest and damn the
consequences?
The partisan actions of the police and the
infamous invasion of the APC offices in Lagos are a clear indication
about the loyalty of the security agencies in the country. What if
Jonathan rigs himself back to power? Will the opposition party accept
the election results or will they form a parallel government as alleged?
Will that change anything about the efforts currently employed to fight
the Boko Haram insurgents?
Now that Nigerians still await the APC to present its candidate, it is difficult to make any comparisons.
From
all indications, it is safe to conclude from his acts of impunity that
President Jonathan is losing grip of Africa’s most populous country. It
could slip off his hands at any time. What is not clear is whether the
African continent can afford the consequences of an unstable Nigeria.
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