The
news coming from Northern Nigeria in the past few days has been very
cheery. Media reports from the Military High Command indicate that a
senior Boko Haram member likely to be an imitation of the group’s
leader, Abubakar Shekau, might have died during a confrontation in
Konduga, Borno State.
Lately,
it has been one sobering humiliation after another as the Nigerian
military battle fiercely to repel the advancing Boko Haram insurgents.
First,
it was Gwoza, a border town about 135 kilometres southeast of
Maiduguri, where the insurgents reportedly sacked all the military
formations including a Police Training College. The terrorists later
occupied the town, hoisted their flag and proceeded to declare their
caliphate.
From
Gwoza, they gradually advanced to the next town known as Bama, which is
about 60 kilometres to Maiduguri the state capital. They attacked and
successfully occupied it. The battle in Bama was very strategic for the
insurgents as they reportedly sacked the Emir and appointed a new one.
They also took over the Bama Prisons and captured and imprisoned some
locals who refused to obey their directives.
The capture of
these two local government areas bolstered the confidence of the
terrorists and emboldened them as they continued to chant songs of
victory in jubilation around the town. It was in Bama that the
insurgents attempted a change in strategy to see if they could enhance
their acceptability and legitimacy within the communities. They began to
break into shops and allow the local people to collect food items for
free. They also took over some of the houses that had boreholes and
allowed the community members to collect water for free. However, many
of the community members continued to be fearful and suspicious of the
insurgents.
From Bama, they proceeded to Konduga with full
confidence. The Local Government Area is about 25 kilometres to
Maiduguri on the bank of Ngadda River. In fact, part of the area covered
by the University of Maiduguri falls into the territory of this local
government area. With Gwoza and Bama fully in the hands of the
insurgents, it is likely that the plan of the insurgents was to capture
Konduga and then use it as a base to launch an attack on Maiduguri.
However,
that was not to be. On their way to Konduga, the insurgents ran into a
calculated ambush of soldiers who levelled them. The casualty figures
were heavy on the side of the insurgents. In fact, in one of the videos
that shot by the locals, corpses of the insurgents littered the streets
and farmlands. Community members were seen raining curses at the corpses
of the insurgents. Before they could consolidate their grip on Bama,
the revelations of the Australian “negotiator”, Dr. Stephen Davies, hit
the media and triggered some finger pointing among politicians. It will
be interesting to find out the level of impact this had on the success
or failure of the insurgents lately.
Another
interesting part of what may be an unfolding drama is that since the
insurgency started, this is probably the first time that the military
successfully ambushed the insurgents. How come? The pictures from the
videos indicate that Boko Haram is still the same rag-tag group of
ill-trained young men. How have they been managing to defeat a
well-trained Nigerian Army up to the point that they had to beat a
“tactical manoeuvre” twice into the Republic of Cameroon? What has
changed suddenly?
Another fact that is noteworthy is that many
residents of Maiduguri were jubilant as soon as they sighted the
soldiers indicating that they were happy with the victory. This suggests
that it is likely that ordinary citizens and Nigerian soldiers may be
in agreement on the need to eradicate the Boko Haram insurgency. What
may yet be unclear to many observers is the disposition of senior
military officers to this goal. Who could be jeopardising or even
sabotaging the efforts of these soldiers? Who are those who issued those
conflicting orders that led to many causalities on the side of the
military? What about the reported withdrawal of soldiers a few hours
before the arrival of the insurgents? How valid are the complaints that
our military is less equipped than the insurgents and who is to be held
responsible? What about those who allegedly count rounds of ammunition
and give to soldiers in cellophane bags in a way that put them at risk
and lower their morale? When will a comprehensive inquiry be done into
the probable reasons that pushed those convicted soldiers from Giwa
Barracks to attempt mutiny even though they knew that death is the
consequence? It is obvious that the insurgents are not sophisticated.
However, it appears that they allegedly have possible channels of
sensitive information which they leverage on coupled with a terrain
advantage. It is clearly evident that the insurgents do not have
superior tactics. It appears the ground is prepared for them perhaps by
some unscrupulous collaborators somewhere in the crowd.
A clear
pattern that is beginning to emerge to discerning minds that unlike
other insurgencies like the Al-Shabaab in Somalia, Hamas in Palestine
and Talibans in Pakistan, Boko Haram has neither acceptability nor trust
in communities where it operates. Its new strategy to rebuild
legitimacy in Bama suffered a setback. This legitimacy deficit may turn
out to be its greatest undoing and should make its defeat and ultimate
annihilation relatively easy. The attack on the rural market in Mainok
suggests that the fighters have now become hungry with very limited food
supplies. If such a blockade is a deliberate effort, then it should be
sustained as hungry and thirsty insurgents are likely to have low morale
and surrender faster. Intelligence gathering should be strengthened in
collaboration with embedded community members.
After
the second defeat in Konduga the morale of these fighters might have
been terrified and demoralised. The bombardment from the military should
continue ceaselessly at such a time. If possible, all the borders
between Cameroon and Nigeria should be blocked temporarily to ensure
that the insurgents do not escape into their country. In between the
questions raised above and the suggestions offered, one is confident
that the end of Boko Haram insurgency may not be far away. Insinuations
that the insurgents have the capacity to fight for another 45 years is a
fallacy. It is not surprising that as they are about settling down to
establish their caliphate and attack Maiduguri, they are simply throwing
themselves open for a sucker punch. Kudos to our military. This cup
will soon pass us by.
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